Watch it come in
The moving particles show the wind blowing across the sea towards us, from the ECMWF forecast model. Faster particles mean stronger wind. Press play on the timeline at the bottom of the map to run the next hours forward and watch the storm cross the Channel. The blue pin is Guernsey.
Island reports
Seen a tree down, a road blocked, flooding or a power cut? Tell everyone. Reports stay up for 24 hours and anyone can mark one as cleared. Please keep it to what you can actually see, and never stop in a dangerous spot to post.
Businesses: are you open today?
Shops, cafés, pubs, pharmacies, trades: tell islanders your hours for today. Posting the same name again replaces your earlier update. Entries stay up for 24 hours.
Chance of gusts reaching…
These chances come from running the forecast models many times with slightly different starting conditions (about 140 runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, the German weather service and the US weather service). If 7 out of 10 runs reach a speed, we show 70%. They apply to the airport weather station over the next 42 hours.
Wind over the next two days
Gust speed in mph. Black dots are real readings from the airport. The shaded band is where most forecast runs sit. The thin grey lines are the individual forecast models. The red band is the official red-warning window.
Hour by hour
| When | Most likely gust | Could reach | Chance of 60+ mph | What it will feel like |
|---|
"Could reach" is the level only 1 in 10 forecast runs go above. Times are Guernsey local time.
What the forecasters are saying
The official forecast for Guernsey is written by Jersey Met (the Channel Islands' forecasting office). Their wording uses the Beaufort scale: F8 gale ≈ 39–46 mph average, F9 severe gale ≈ 47–54 mph, F10 storm ≈ 55–63 mph. Gusts are higher than the average.
Live readings around us
Official airport weather stations
Stations to the south-west show what is heading our way before it arrives.
| Station | Time | Average | Gust | From | Pressure | Weather |
|---|
Community weather stations
Home weather stations run by islanders, from the Weathercloud and Weather Underground networks. Useful for seeing how the wind differs around the island, but they are not calibrated and many sit in gardens that are sheltered, so they usually read lower than the airport.
| Station | Area | Network | Last report | Average | Gust | From |
|---|
What each computer model thinks
Different forecasting centres run different computer models. The high-resolution UK and French models see the island's shape best and are usually the most reliable for Guernsey a day ahead; the global models are better at the big picture.
| Model | Who runs it | Peak gust | When | Notes |
|---|
Understanding the numbers
| Gusts (mph) | What you will notice |
|---|
Why the forecasts do not all agree
The exact track of the storm's centre decides where the strongest winds land. A shift of 30 miles north or south changes Guernsey's peak gusts by 10–15 mph. Each model handles that slightly differently, so we show them all rather than picking one. When they agree, confidence is high. When they spread out, treat the higher numbers seriously.
Why your garden may be different
All forecasts here are for the airport weather station, which is exposed and 100 m above sea level. Headlands, cliffs, the west coast and sea fronts can gust 10–20 mph higher. St Peter Port streets and valleys are often 10–20 mph lower. Upper floors feel more than ground level.
Stay safe
- Stay indoors during the peak, especially Friday morning. Flying debris and falling trees are the main dangers.
- Keep well away from the sea, breakwaters and cliff paths. Large waves and spray will come over sea walls.
- Secure or bring in bins, trampolines, garden furniture and anything loose tonight.
- Charge phones and have a torch ready in case of power cuts.
- In an emergency call 999. For official island updates see gov.gg and the Jersey Met forecast.
Where this data comes from
Forecast model data via Open-Meteo (UK Met Office, Météo-France, ECMWF, NOAA, DWD, KNMI, DMI, Environment Canada). Airport readings via aviationweather.gov and airport.gg (Guernsey Met Office). Official text forecast from Jersey Met. Community stations from Weathercloud. Animated wind and rain-forecast maps by Windy; rain radar frames from RainViewer with map tiles by CARTO and OpenStreetMap contributors. Island reports and business hours are posted by the public and are not verified. The red-warning details were last checked by hand at the time shown; always confirm warnings with Jersey Met and gov.gg.
This page is an independent aggregator, not an official warning service.